COVID-19 and climate: global evidence from 117 countries.
Identifieur interne : 000751 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000750; suivant : 000752COVID-19 and climate: global evidence from 117 countries.
Auteurs : Simiao Chen [Allemagne, République populaire de Chine] ; Klaus Prettner [Allemagne] ; Michael Kuhn [Autriche] ; Pascal Geldsetzer [Allemagne, États-Unis] ; Chen Wang [République populaire de Chine] ; Till B Rnighausen [Allemagne, République populaire de Chine, Afrique du Sud, États-Unis] ; David E. Bloom [États-Unis]Source :
- medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences ; 2020.
Abstract
Visual inspection of world maps shows that coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is less prevalent in countries closer to the equator, where heat and humidity tend to be higher. Scientists disagree how to interpret this observation because the relationship between COVID-19 and climatic conditions may be confounded by many factors. We regress confirmed COVID-19 cases per million inhabitants in a country against the country's distance from the equator, controlling key confounding factors: air travel, distance to Wuhan, testing intensity, cell phone usage, vehicle concentration, urbanization, and income. A one-degree increase in absolute latitude is associated with a 2.6% increase in cases per million inhabitants (p value <0.001). The Northern hemisphere may see a decline in new COVID-19 cases during summer and a resurgence during winter.
DOI: 10.1101/2020.06.04.20121863
PubMed: 32577697
PubMed Central: PMC7302306
Affiliations:
- Afrique du Sud, Allemagne, Autriche, République populaire de Chine, États-Unis
- Bade-Wurtemberg, Californie, District de Karlsruhe, District de Stuttgart, Massachusetts, Vienne (Autriche)
- Heidelberg, Pékin, Stanford (Californie), Stuttgart, Vienne (Autriche)
- Université Stanford, Université de Hohenheim
Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)
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type="city">Pékin</settlement></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>Chinese Academy of Engineering, Beijing, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Chinese Academy of Engineering, Beijing</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Pékin</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="B Rnighausen, Till" sort="B Rnighausen, Till" uniqKey="B Rnighausen T" first="Till" last="B Rnighausen">Till B Rnighausen</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Heidelberg University Medical School, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Allemagne</country><wicri:regionArea>Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Heidelberg University Medical School, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="land" nuts="1">Bade-Wurtemberg</region><region type="district" nuts="2">District de Karlsruhe</region><settlement type="city">Heidelberg</settlement></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Beijing</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Pékin</settlement></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Africa Health Research Institute (AHRI), Somkhele, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Afrique du Sud</country><wicri:regionArea>Africa Health Research Institute (AHRI), Somkhele, KwaZulu-Natal</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>KwaZulu-Natal</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Massachusetts</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Bloom, David E" sort="Bloom, David E" uniqKey="Bloom D" first="David E" last="Bloom">David E. Bloom</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Massachusetts</region></placeName></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences</title><imprint><date when="2020" type="published">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Visual inspection of world maps shows that coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is less prevalent in countries closer to the equator, where heat and humidity tend to be higher. Scientists disagree how to interpret this observation because the relationship between COVID-19 and climatic conditions may be confounded by many factors. We regress confirmed COVID-19 cases per million inhabitants in a country against the country's distance from the equator, controlling key confounding factors: air travel, distance to Wuhan, testing intensity, cell phone usage, vehicle concentration, urbanization, and income. A one-degree increase in absolute latitude is associated with a 2.6% increase in cases per million inhabitants (p value <0.001). The Northern hemisphere may see a decline in new COVID-19 cases during summer and a resurgence during winter.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="PubMed-not-MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">32577697</PMID><DateRevised><Year>2020</Year><Month>09</Month><Day>28</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Electronic"><Journal><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><PubDate><Year>2020</Year><Month>Jun</Month><Day>05</Day></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences</Title><ISOAbbreviation>medRxiv</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>COVID-19 and climate: global evidence from 117 countries.</ArticleTitle><ELocationID EIdType="pii" ValidYN="Y">2020.06.04.20121863</ELocationID><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1101/2020.06.04.20121863</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>Visual inspection of world maps shows that coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is less prevalent in countries closer to the equator, where heat and humidity tend to be higher. Scientists disagree how to interpret this observation because the relationship between COVID-19 and climatic conditions may be confounded by many factors. We regress confirmed COVID-19 cases per million inhabitants in a country against the country's distance from the equator, controlling key confounding factors: air travel, distance to Wuhan, testing intensity, cell phone usage, vehicle concentration, urbanization, and income. A one-degree increase in absolute latitude is associated with a 2.6% increase in cases per million inhabitants (p value <0.001). The Northern hemisphere may see a decline in new COVID-19 cases during summer and a resurgence during winter.</AbstractText></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Chen</LastName><ForeName>Simiao</ForeName><Initials>S</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Heidelberg University Medical School, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Prettner</LastName><ForeName>Klaus</ForeName><Initials>K</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>University of Hohenheim, Institute of Economics, Stuttgart, Germany.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Kuhn</LastName><ForeName>Michael</ForeName><Initials>M</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Wittgenstein Centre (IIASA, VID/ÖAW, WU), Vienna Institute of Demography, Vienna, Austria.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Geldsetzer</LastName><ForeName>Pascal</ForeName><Initials>P</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Heidelberg University Medical School, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Division of Primary Care and Population Health, Department of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Wang</LastName><ForeName>Chen</ForeName><Initials>C</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Diseases, Beijing, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Center of Respiratory Medicine, China-Japan Friendship Hospital, Beijing, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Chinese Academy of Engineering, Beijing, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Bärnighausen</LastName><ForeName>Till</ForeName><Initials>T</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Heidelberg University Medical School, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Africa Health Research Institute (AHRI), Somkhele, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Bloom</LastName><ForeName>David E</ForeName><Initials>DE</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D000076942">Preprint</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2020</Year><Month>06</Month><Day>05</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>United States</Country><MedlineTA>medRxiv</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>101767986</NlmUniqueID></MedlineJournalInfo></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2020</Year><Month>6</Month><Day>25</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2020</Year><Month>6</Month><Day>25</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2020</Year><Month>6</Month><Day>25</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>1</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>epublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId 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Sud</li><li>Allemagne</li><li>Autriche</li><li>République populaire de Chine</li><li>États-Unis</li></country><region><li>Bade-Wurtemberg</li><li>Californie</li><li>District de Karlsruhe</li><li>District de Stuttgart</li><li>Massachusetts</li><li>Vienne (Autriche)</li></region><settlement><li>Heidelberg</li><li>Pékin</li><li>Stanford (Californie)</li><li>Stuttgart</li><li>Vienne (Autriche)</li></settlement><orgName><li>Université Stanford</li><li>Université de Hohenheim</li></orgName></list><tree><country name="Allemagne"><region name="Bade-Wurtemberg"><name sortKey="Chen, Simiao" sort="Chen, Simiao" uniqKey="Chen S" first="Simiao" last="Chen">Simiao Chen</name></region><name sortKey="B Rnighausen, Till" sort="B Rnighausen, Till" uniqKey="B Rnighausen T" first="Till" last="B Rnighausen">Till B Rnighausen</name><name sortKey="Geldsetzer, Pascal" sort="Geldsetzer, Pascal" uniqKey="Geldsetzer P" first="Pascal" last="Geldsetzer">Pascal Geldsetzer</name><name sortKey="Prettner, Klaus" sort="Prettner, Klaus" uniqKey="Prettner K" first="Klaus" last="Prettner">Klaus Prettner</name></country><country name="République populaire de Chine"><noRegion><name sortKey="Chen, Simiao" sort="Chen, Simiao" uniqKey="Chen S" first="Simiao" last="Chen">Simiao Chen</name></noRegion><name sortKey="B Rnighausen, Till" sort="B Rnighausen, Till" uniqKey="B Rnighausen T" first="Till" last="B Rnighausen">Till B Rnighausen</name><name sortKey="Wang, Chen" sort="Wang, Chen" uniqKey="Wang C" first="Chen" last="Wang">Chen Wang</name><name sortKey="Wang, Chen" sort="Wang, Chen" uniqKey="Wang C" first="Chen" last="Wang">Chen Wang</name><name sortKey="Wang, Chen" sort="Wang, Chen" uniqKey="Wang C" first="Chen" last="Wang">Chen Wang</name><name sortKey="Wang, Chen" sort="Wang, Chen" uniqKey="Wang C" first="Chen" last="Wang">Chen Wang</name></country><country name="Autriche"><region name="Vienne (Autriche)"><name sortKey="Kuhn, Michael" sort="Kuhn, Michael" uniqKey="Kuhn M" first="Michael" last="Kuhn">Michael Kuhn</name></region></country><country name="États-Unis"><region name="Californie"><name sortKey="Geldsetzer, Pascal" sort="Geldsetzer, Pascal" uniqKey="Geldsetzer P" first="Pascal" last="Geldsetzer">Pascal Geldsetzer</name></region><name sortKey="B Rnighausen, Till" sort="B Rnighausen, Till" uniqKey="B Rnighausen T" first="Till" last="B Rnighausen">Till B Rnighausen</name><name sortKey="Bloom, David E" sort="Bloom, David E" uniqKey="Bloom D" first="David E" last="Bloom">David E. Bloom</name></country><country name="Afrique du Sud"><noRegion><name sortKey="B Rnighausen, Till" sort="B Rnighausen, Till" uniqKey="B Rnighausen T" first="Till" last="B Rnighausen">Till B Rnighausen</name></noRegion></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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